Episode #304: Preparing For Selling During A Recession

Inflation is rising, interest rates are climbing, supply chains are unstable, and energy is being weaponised. Even as Covid infections and deaths come under control through vaccines and herd immunity, business leaders in Japan face a new pressure: a global recession. If the U.S. catches a sniffle, Japan often catches a cold — and that reality makes sales planning feel urgent, not theoretical.

Recessions compress budgets, increase risk-aversion, and slow decision cycles. But they also reshuffle markets. Some competitors disappear, others weaken, and buying priorities shift. That means the rules of engagement change: the same sales playbook you used pre-Covid may not fit a recessionary Japan that depends heavily on foreign markets and global confidence.

Mini-summary: A recession doesn’t just reduce demand; it redraws the competitive map. Your advantage comes from adapting faster than rivals..

Covid may have removed competitors you assumed would always be there. Think of iconic businesses that vanished — even long-standing names in Japan where corporate longevity is prized. When a major rival exits, their customers don’t stop buying; they re-distribute spend to remaining vendors.

Even when rivals survive, they may be “wounded”: downsized teams, reduced coverage, slower follow-up, fewer client visits. If you kept your crew intact, your capacity to prospect and serve can now outpace theirs.

Mini-summary: Competitor losses or cutbacks don’t end demand — they shift it toward the companies still standing strong.

Unlike a global pandemic, recessions don’t hit everyone equally. Some sectors stall; others remain resilient or even grow. Covid crushed tourism, training, and hospitality, but other industries stayed stable with minimal damage. The next recession will follow the same uneven pattern.

For Japan-based sellers, this means:

• Identify which industries still have buying power.

• Reduce time spent chasing sectors likely to freeze spending.

• Use your own past recession experience as a guide: what stayed strong last time, what collapsed, and what recovered fastest?

Mini-summary: Recessions create “safe harbors” and “dead zones.” Your targeting discipline determines your pipeline health.

In Dale Carnegie sales training, we use a client-product matrix to spot under-served accounts. Most sellers discover they only provide a narrow slice of their full lineup to clients who actually have multiple needs.

Covid may have weakened incumbents inside your accounts, shifting internal loyalties and making decision-makers more open to alternatives. Existing clients already trust you, take your calls, and remove the need to fight through layers of gatekeepers.

Mini-summary: Your warmest growth path in recession is often inside clients who already believe in you — but haven’t bought enough from you yet.

Existing clients can become former clients quickly — for example when a new HR Director or line manager arrives and resets preferred suppliers. But that same change works in your favor too:

• New leaders often arrive without legacy bias.

• Companies you once served already know your name.

• Gatekeepers may block calls, but they will still deliver a well-addressed package to decision-makers.

A smart re-activation approach (direct mail, targeted outreach, or value-based re-entry offers) can restart conversations that were dormant.

Mini-summary: Past clients are not lost causes; they are “low-resistance” re-entry opportunities if you time it with organizational change.

Sometimes the buyer who trusts you leaves — and becomes your bridge into a new account. If you haven’t followed where they went, recession is the moment to do it. In Japan, LinkedIn adoption is still limited compared with other markets, especially in very domestic (日本企業 / nihon-kigyō, “Japanese companies”) firms.

So practical tracking often still means:

• Calling the old company and asking directly.

• Leveraging mutual contacts.

• Checking industry associations or alumni networks.

Mini-summary: Relationship equity travels with the person — follow them and your pipeline follows too.

Petyr Baelish said “chaos is a ladder,” and recessions are chaotic. In reality, it’s closer to snakes and ladders: some moves lift you, others drop you. Your job is to find the ladders that point up:

1. Study past recessions to see which sectors, offers, and behaviors win.

2. Tighten and deepen existing client relationships.

3. Re-ignite warm accounts that recently went cold.

4. Out-serve competitors who reduced capacity.

Mini-summary: You don’t need perfect certainty — you need smarter ladder-finding than your competitors.

• Recessions reshape competition; they don’t just shrink demand.

• Covid weakened or removed rivals, creating openings you can capture now.

• Focus on industries with buying ability, not on everyone equally.

• Growth in downturns comes fastest from existing and recently-lapsed clients.

Founded in the U.S. in 1912, Dale Carnegie Training has supported individuals and companies worldwide for over a century in leadership, sales, presentation, executive coaching, and DEI. Our Tokyo office, established in 1963, has been empowering both Japanese and multinational corporate clients ever since.