Episode #312: Hope Is Not A Strategy In Sales

When markets shift overnight, sales targets don’t politely adjust with them. Leaders are still expected to deliver numbers, manage morale, and keep teams moving — even when uncertainty makes the path feel foggy. If your strategy contains more hope than you’d like to admit, the question becomes: what do you do next?

Sales organizations set targets using imperfect information. Forecasts depend on incomplete data, assumptions, and best-guess extrapolations. Even strong teams can’t fully predict shocks like the first COVID case in Japan (January 15, 2020) or the war in Ukraine (February 23, 2022). In these moments, hope quietly fills the gaps between what we know and what we need to hit.

Mini-summary: Hope enters strategy when information is incomplete and the environment changes faster than forecasting can keep up.

When targets are set too high, many people “mentally check out.” They don’t announce it — but their activity drops because they no longer believe the goal is fair or achievable. The result is a hidden performance spiral: fewer actions → fewer wins → even less belief.

Mini-summary: Unfair-feeling targets reduce belief, and reduced belief quietly kills activity.

In hybrid and work-from-home environments, managers lose daily visibility into progress and obstacles. At the same time, external factors (COVID, downturns, stalled budgets) slow deal flow. If leaders push too hard, talent may leave quickly — especially when alternative jobs are easy to find. This makes leadership more delicate and complex at once.

Mini-summary: Hybrid work increases uncertainty for leaders, while external pressures raise the risk of burnout and churn.

Start by identifying where deals can still move. Not every sector is equally affected by downturns. Look for opportunity pockets: industries still investing, teams still hiring, or segments with urgent challenges. Then focus on accelerating deal cycles wherever possible — because time, not effort, is often what runs out first.

Mini-summary: Replace hope with targeted focus on sectors and actions that can still produce momentum now.

Yes — structure matters more when conditions worsen. Consider smaller teams, tighter supervision, and frequent roundtables for shared learning. In strong markets, autonomy works. In hard markets, coaching and coordination prevent drift.

Experience is also an asset. Many team members under 36 have never sold through a major crash since Lehman (2008). Pairing less-experienced sellers with veterans helps teams navigate downturn patterns they’ve never personally seen.

Mini-summary: In downturns, re-structuring and experience-sharing turn scattered effort into coordinated action.

Go back to “dead pools” of past clients. These accounts already have a buying history, often still have vendor approvals, and may face unresolved or newly emerging problems you can solve. Even if contacts have changed, the underlying business needs may be alive.

Mini-summary: Former clients are a high-probability starting point because trust and process friction are already lower.

If one company in an industry has a problem, similar companies likely share it. Use each win as a pattern-finder.
Example: if one five-star hotel struggles with retention, other five-star hotels probably do too. Treat that insight as a reason to systematically approach the rest of that segment.

Mini-summary: One client’s pain point is often a map to an entire category of prospects.

What is the real way to replace hope with strategy?

Hope shrinks when action grows. The aim isn’t to eliminate uncertainty — it’s to stop being stuck by it. Start moving: re-focus sectors, tighten team structure, revive former accounts, and replicate proven industry plays. Momentum comes from deliberate activity, not waiting for conditions to improve.

Mini-summary: You don’t remove hope by thinking harder — you remove it by acting smarter and sooner.

• Uncertainty makes hope creep into strategy — action replaces it.

• Unrealistic targets quietly reduce belief and activity.

• In downturns, smaller teams and stronger coaching raise performance.

• Past clients and “look-alike” industries are the fastest paths to new revenue.

Founded in the U.S. in 1912, Dale Carnegie Training has supported individuals and companies worldwide for over a century in leadership, sales, presentation, executive coaching, and DEI. Our Tokyo office, established in 1963, has been empowering both Japanese and multinational corporate clients ever since.